How I Analyze and Looking for Entry & Exit point.

Details about the process of my analysis, entry, exit with Smart Money Concept

Author

Onidul Islam Siyam
August 03, 2025

Today’s Newsletter I will try explain how I start my analysis and prepare for the new week, I will try to cover the full process as much as possible to show how to start analysis and apply strategy in the real live market. I will show it using Forex Pair.

CFTC’s COT Report

Start with COT report by CFTC:

The Commitments of Traders (COT) report, published weekly by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), provides a breakdown of open interest in futures and options markets where 20 or more traders hold positions above CFTC reporting levels. Released every Friday at 3:30 PM EST, it reflects positions as of the previous Tuesday. The report categorizes traders into Commercial (hedgers like producers), Non-Commercial (speculators like hedge funds), and Non-Reportable (small traders), offering insights into market sentiment and positioning.

COT report isn’t something you can heavily relay on, Because most of the time it’s not accurately follows market and even opposite sometimes. But you can get an quick sentimental view.

From where to follow COT report: It’s better to follow from official website of CFTC, but it’s little bit messy, so if you are not used to; you might be lost in the data. Another is tradingster dot com, where you can get beautifully decorated data. You will easily get Major currency, Crypto, Metal, index and more data in home page.

Major Fundamental Event:

Fundamental Analysis at Major Events:

Fundamental analysis during major events, like central bank announcements, economic data releases, or geopolitical developments, etc. are crucial because these events drive market volatility and price movements. Understanding their impact helps traders anticipate trends, assess asset value shifts, and make informed decisions.

How to Conduct Fundamental Analysis:

1. Track Events: Monitor economic calendars for key events like interest rate decisions, GDP releases, or earnings reports. 2. Analyze Data: Evaluate the event’s implications. 3. Compare Expectations: Check market consensus forecasts vs. actual outcomes to gauge potential price reactions. 4. Assess Sentiment: Use news and COT reports to understand market positioning and sentiment shifts. 5. Act Swiftly: Combine insights with technical analysis to time entries or exits, as markets react quickly to major events.

SMC: Sometimes market goes to opposite of news direction; Catch the liquidity and go back usual direction, which is Smart money Sentiment. I usually wait at-least 30 minutes to see how It’s reacting and if any liquidity zone or probable stop loss zone exist price will most likely go to catch that liquidity even it opposite of news before go to right direction. But sometimes might happen as usual.

Forexfactory Economic Calendar with this week major event

If you are beginner you should follow forexfactoy dot com, because where you will see not only the event, forecast, and previous data but also written that how and why market can react if data higher or lower also graph of previous data and major X post and community discussion. You can also follow investing dot com, trading economic dot com, Those are also good.

Technical Analysis:

Technical analysis is core part of my trading and manage portfolio. But not every retail trader can do it smartly, I’m talking about smart money’s stop loss hunting and liquidity capturing sentiment. You have to understand where is the liquidity zone for retail trader with normal technical chart smart money will most likely eat that. As David Paul said, If you are victim of stop loss hunting, then “Next time when you execute your trade you need to wait until market in your probable stop loss zone when price is in your technical chart’s stop loss zone you analyze; in that moment execute your trade to find out what happen.”

I prefer conservative entry to avoid smart money loop. Double top and double bottom with specific rules and money management can be a simple example of conservative entry. Implementing 2618 system in your strategy can be a good conservative entry system. And for exit I use trend line, Fibonacci extensions divergence and candlestick patterns. Stop loss, take profit, or exit system is different for everybody. It’s related to what is your money management strategy.

GBPUSD Analysis Example:

In daily chart GBPUSD is downtrend but last Friday USD faced significant bear movement with most major currency. This week I’m waiting for pull back to my horizontal line drown in the picture which is also Fibonacci 38.3 zone. I will wait until double top, liquidity capture and proper candlestick patterns, if i got deviation between price and RSI or price and volume that will be clear signal. But if major fundamental things against USD, I wouldn’t enter. Here, if I got sell opportunity risk:reword will take my favor. And For exit I will trend it and try to hold until chart show change of character. Although technical analysis and smart money movement visibility in technical chart is almost similar for all instrument but you should back test for each instrument.

USDCHF Daily Chart

USDCHF 4 hour Chart

USDCHF Example:

This is an example of what I shared above about SMC. I took my first sell entry aggressively with Pull back to major swing high, Fibonacci and RSI deviance confluence; but market immediately goes bullish, then I assume price is trying to capture liquidity and found another zone with Fibonacci resistance which is Gray Rectangle zone and I found strong over bought condition and clear RSI divergence and finally execute another sell entry at that zone. This zone is Usually a stop loss zone for most of the retail trader. But see market exactly get back step from that zone.

As you see my both two trade now in profit. Market is closed now as Sunday. Let’s see what happen tomorrow.

That is the process of analysis exactly how I Analyze for my trade, hope this will be helpful for you.

Thanks,