Probable Short Entry for Equity/Stock Trader ($AAPL)

Technical Overview:

In daily chart $AAPL price just touched previous higher high which is a major price reaction zone. This zone previously shows strong price rejection and act as both support and resistance level. Market needs very strong strength to break this level to continue upper trend. Two confluence is: Price touched both Fibonacci 50.0 resistance and 200 Day Exponential Moving Average. Possibility is price would down for short term moment $214 to $195.

In hourly chart price is overbought and showing clear Deviation with RSI at exactly this resistance level I mentioned previous Chart. Which is a good indication of price reversal at least short term to downside.

In weekly chat price goes sharp bullish movement last week, recent bearish due to tariff uncertainty had goes at $170, But it’s almost recovered more than half bear position. According to my technical analysis price can be consolidate between $214 and $195 for little amount of time. But after market open if prices cross that resistance level that movement might be all time high movement. So, if you want to enter the market you should get confirmation of price rejection pattern in candlestick.

Fundamental views:

For the long-term Analysis, Price is overcoming from recession. Now Apple facing AI criticism, Google and Microsoft already established their LLM (Gemini and Copilot) which are using all across the internet with significant service value in different sector, and their API are using in many SaaS and so many AI powered services. Apple is still not announced anything about Big AI power or any major update of Apple intelligence. Which is concern for AI race among Global markets. which is fundamentally suggest that price might be goes bear for a temporary time or consolidate until tariff and AI tension remove.

Tariffs threats:

Although Tim Cook known as the Master of Supply Chain Management. Due to high and rapid economic uncertainty made Apple’s stock dropped 3% on May 23, 2025, losing about $70 billion in market value after Trump’s announcement, though it has partially recovered. The company is diversifying production, aiming to expand in India by 2026, but Trump’s broad tariff stance limits this strategy’s effectiveness. CEO Tim Cook has engaged with Trump to seek exemptions, with no clear resolution yet.

President Donald Trump has threatened to impose a 25% tariff on iPhones not manufactured in the United States; a policy announced on May 23, 2025. This targets Apple’s current strategy of producing iPhones overseas, including in India, where it has shifted some manufacturing to avoid tariffs on Chinese-made goods. Moving production to the U.S. could raise iPhone prices significantly potentially to $1,500 to $3,500 from the current $1,199 due to higher labor and setup costs. This could hurt consumer demand and Apple’s profit margins. Including a proposed 50% tariff on European Union goods set to begin June 1, 2025. These tensions signal a potential global trade war, which could disrupt supply chains, raise costs, and provoke retaliation from affected countries like the EU. For Apple, this complicates its global operations beyond just U.S. specific policies.

For Day Trader:

If price action confirms that short entry with double top or engulfing or evening star pattern, I would be a high reward ratio trade. If entry point would around $214 and stop loss $216 to $217 Risk & Reword would least 1:3 If probable Take profit set up near $199 to $200.

For Investor:

Apple’s a solid long-term bet thanks to its strong brand, loyal customers, and growing services like streaming and cloud. It’s got a ton of cash ($157 billion) and pumps out free cash flow ($107 billion last year), which funds dividends and buybacks. But watch out its stock price ($213.55) is pricey with a high P/E (around 35), and Trump’s 25% tariff threat on non-U.S.-made iPhones could hike costs and hurt demand. Short-term, expect some ups and downs with trade news, and my potential short entry for day trader is based on that. But for long-term investors, hold or buy on dips if you believe in Apple’s innovation and market dominance. Just keep an eye on tariff updates and don’t expect quick return.

I personally believe that APPLE will overcome those tariff tension related to supply chain uncertainty with Tim Cook’s capability, and Apple would come with a big Update about Artificial Intelligence. So, Investors are safe but little disturbance might happen due to tariff uncertainty.

N.B. If you want to enter for this probable short entry, make sure this analysis is familiar with your strategy, proper money management and candlestick confirmation. This newsletter of Finovatic is about sharing analysis to catch the market and price action hints. Do, your own analysis before entering the market.

Hope this Analysis added some confluence to make sharper your strategy.

Thanks,

@anidsiam from @finovatic