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Weekly Fundamentals and Live analysis with trade Setup
Weekly Fundamentals & Live Trade Setups
Onidul Islam Siyam
August 25, 2025
FUNDAMENTAL VIEW:
The Forex market effects from last week's data and anticipation for the upcoming week. The US Dollar (USD) remains under pressure from dovish Federal Reserve signals, with Powell opening the door to a September rate cut amid economic uncertainty. while safe-havens like JPY and CHF face mixed flows. Broader drivers include the extended US-China tariff pause (90 days, now until November 10, 2025), which eases trade tensions but introduces uncertainty for export-heavy currencies like CAD.
Interest Rate Expectations: Fed may cut rates in September, three months earlier than previously forecast, weakening USD; ECB holds steady with no fresh shocks, supporting EUR mildly; BoJ uncertainty pressures JPY; BoE tone neutral amid UK services strength.
Major High Impact Fundamental Events:
Event/Date | Description | Expected Impact | Affected Pairs & Rationale |
|---|---|---|---|
Aug 26 : CB Consumer Confidence Aug 26: Richmond Manufacturing Index | Level of a composite index based on surveyed households Level of a composite index based on surveyed manufacturers in Richmond; | High High | Actual' greater than 'Forecast' is good for currency Actual' greater than 'Forecast' is good for currency |
Aug 27: BOC Gov Macklem Speaks | Volatility is sometimes experienced during his speeches as traders attempt to decipher interest rate clues. | High | More hawkish than expected is good for currency |
Aug 27: AUD CPI y/y | Change in the price of goods and services purchased by consumers | High | 'Actual' greater than 'Forecast' is good for currency; |
Aug 28: US Core PCE, Jobless Claims | Inflation and employment data | High | All USD pairs: Softer readings boost cut expectations (EUR/USD higher); hotter data could spark USD rebound |
Aug 28: USD Prelim GDP q/q | Annualized change in the value of all goods and services produced by the economy. | High | 'Actual' greater than 'Forecast' is good for currency. |
Aug 29: Core PCE Price Index m/m | Change in the price of goods and services purchased by consumers, excluding food and energy. | High | 'Actual' greater than 'Forecast' is good for currency. |
Aug 29: CAD core GDP m/m | Change in the inflation-adjusted value of all goods and services produced by the economy. | High | 'Actual' greater than 'Forecast' is good for currency. |
Analysis and trade setups:
NZDUSD:
Last week after Powell speech at Friday signaling rate cut in September had made USD weak and happen a huge bearish against other Major Currency. NZDUSD pair wasn’t different from that scene. This week USD tend to a possibility of recover it’s move again.
NZDUSD DAILY CHART
Technical chart got an obstacle on a major resistance zone (0.58725) supporting Fibonacci 23.6 level. This level is a major reaction zone tested multiple time at higher time frame.
NZDUSD 1 HOUR CHART
In one hour chart there is a strong deviance between price and RSI 14. Which is suggesting a bear movement against NZD. Also a bearish engulfing candle appears, I took an entry around closing price of that bearish candle at 0.58675 and my take profit target is around 0.58000, stop loss 0.58809.
COT report data is also suggesting More short in NZD among asset manager/Institutional and Leveraged money funds.
COT report of NZD:
CFTC COT REPORT FROM TRADINGSTER
EUR/USD:
Fundamentals: Strongest driver: Powell's dovish tone vs. ECB pause whispers; German Ifo (today) key—upside could signal Eurozone resilience. Upcoming PCE (high impact, rank 5) risks USD rebound if hot. Everyday: EUR inflation stable, but trade tensions with US weigh.
Technical: Bullish structure; flipped resistance at 1.1710. Key levels: Support 1.1580.
AUDUSD:
I took my second trade at AUDUSD. Entry point at 0.64960. Set up stop loss at 0.65061 and I will train it till I got strong USD weakness signal both fundamentally and technically.
Below I mentioned the reason behind executing this trade:
AUDUSD 4 HOUR CHART
AUDUSD has got bullish movement last week and got stuck at a strong resistance level (0.64933). Fibonacci 38.2 is also supporting this resistance zone. It’s previously proven price reaction zone multiple time.
AUDUSD 1 HOUR CHART
In 1 hour chart Price got overbought and strong bearish divergence between price and RSI at that zone. Which are strong confluence of bear move. I’m not saying I will make profit 100% surely, no one can assure that. Let’s see the performance of my strategical analysis.
Hope this Analysis will be helpful for you to understand something about competitive market.
Thanks,